Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.813912 0.948853 1.098830 1.277836 1.485665 1.719360 2.002126
2025-01-12 0.568347 0.739889 0.951987 1.233361 1.596828 2.050611 2.660567
2025-01-19 0.438227 0.616843 0.854962 1.195328 1.669323 2.306257 3.228023
2025-01-26 0.370844 0.556232 0.818971 1.217982 1.808549 2.650775 3.944653
2025-02-02 0.336802 0.533637 0.827701 1.298209 2.032067 3.133530 4.914703
2025-02-09 0.300593 0.500275 0.813028 1.337393 2.194520 3.541132 5.820823
2025-02-16 0.266997 0.464823 0.788356 1.354484 2.320370 3.902422 6.694951
2025-02-23 0.236327 0.428973 0.756912 1.353934 2.413715 4.217748 7.527472
2025-03-02 0.208855 0.394260 0.721954 1.341095 2.481708 4.494616 8.323367
2025-03-09 0.187594 0.367457 0.696811 1.341238 2.570648 4.815072 9.231631
2025-03-16 0.163220 0.331228 0.649471 1.293338 2.563383 4.958266 9.826131
2025-03-23 0.157906 0.331219 0.670062 1.377361 2.816681 5.613919 11.474002
2025-03-30 0.138872 0.301416 0.629752 1.337570 2.824963 5.806915 12.251393
2025-04-06 0.121714 0.273191 0.589137 1.292138 2.816681 5.967665 12.988209
2025-04-13 0.107414 0.249015 0.553622 1.252348 2.814233 6.138325 13.764683
2025-04-20 0.100108 0.239337 0.547769 1.276072 2.951663 6.618376 15.268157
2025-04-27 0.098002 0.241284 0.567710 1.360085 3.233794 7.444074 17.642555
2025-05-04 0.092899 0.235393 0.569040 1.401117 3.422190 8.082605 19.667083
2025-05-11 0.086754 0.226076 0.561130 1.419014 3.557938 8.615909 21.509029
2025-05-18 0.080129 0.214599 0.546515 1.418438 3.648359 9.052283 23.168521
2025-05-25 0.073466 0.202091 0.527760 1.404994 3.704934 9.413453 24.685865
2025-06-01 0.068157 0.192428 0.514952 1.405144 3.796062 9.869775 26.500324
2025-06-08 0.061003 0.176737 0.484567 1.354984 3.749386 9.973479 27.411648